Learning the wrong lessons will destabilize the region
The dynamics of great power competition in the 21st century is quite complicated. The USA learnt from the war in Afghanistan that military operations would only lead to an economic drain but also that prolonged conflict results in drastic change in public opinion demanding withdrawal of troops.
It also compromised the image of the USA at the international level. As per the Costs of War Project by Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, since invading Afghanistan in 2001, the USA has spent $2.313 trillion on the war. It also estimates that 243,000 people have died as a direct result.
After 9/11, the USA got robust public support as 93 percent of Americans backed taking military action against whoever was responsible for the 9/11 attacks but this support did not remain the same. An August 2021 poll found that 62 percent of Americans thought the war in Afghanistan wasn’t worth fighting. Similarly, a poll from Pew in late August found that 69 percent of Americans didn’t think the USA had achieved its goals in Afghanistan.
In the disintegration of the USSR and the War on Terror, Pakistan was the pawn for the USA. After the breakup of the USSR, Afghanistan was left under Taliban rule but following 9/11, the USA toppled the Taliban government. After that, the war in Afghanistan became a quagmire that continued for two decades. The US military forces departed Afghanistan under the Biden administration, leaving it under Taliban rule. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released in September, 2021 found that among those who approved of the withdrawal, just 26 percent also approved of how it was done; 52 percent disapproved.
After the withdrawal Biden says the USA should learn from its mistakes and that the withdrawal marked the end of “an era of major military operations to remake other countries.” Under the Biden Administration, the US National Security Strategy 2023 revolves around the idea of competition. It incorporates an integrated deterrence approach to counter competitors. The USA wanted to drag other states in its war, the way it did before in the Cold War era.
The USA and its Asia-Pacific allies via strategic partnership with India are going to intensify the Indo-Pakistan bilateral tensions thus jeopardizing the strategic stability of the region. The way it is integrating the key allies in countering their competitors it would not contribute towards maintaining peace and security at the international level.
The USA claims that it seeks to compete in today’s competitive environment while also preserving a rule-based international order that encourages economic growth, peace, and security. Thousands of Afghans who assisted the USA and its allies, as well as up to 200 Americans, were left stranded in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. Pakistan has still not recovered from the damage that the War on Terror inflicted on it. Moreover, the USA also failed to fulfill the promises of financial aid to overcome the losses of the War on Terror in which Pakistan was in the forefront. Dr Hafiz Pasha in his book Growth and Inequality– Agenda for Reforms estimated that Pakistan’s economy sustained a colossal loss of $252 billion owing to the US-led war against terrorism which is nearly eight times more than the financial assistance given by Washington to Islamabad.
In this era of Great Power Competition, the USA focused on India in the South Asian region to be its pawn in countering the rise of China which it foresees will be a long term threat, though China claims that its rise is peaceful. The Chinese rise is not threatening the peace and stability of South Asia but the US involvement is going to threaten the peace, strategic stability and security of the region for the long term.
India’s assumed sense of supremacy is further heightening by having itself on the US side of strategic alignments. Moreover, India is also not willing to lose Russia as its defense partner. The way India benefited in the Cold War era from both blocs via the non-aligned approach, it wants to gain maximum benefits from both sides. Pakistan is still fighting against the trap of terrorism it has fallen in by complying with the USA in war on Afghanistan. The US involvement in the South Asian region neither before contributed towards peace, nor in future is it expected to.
The USA and its Asia-Pacific allies via strategic partnership with India are going to intensify the Indo-Pakistan bilateral tensions thus jeopardizing the strategic stability of the region. The way it is integrating the key allies in countering their competitors it would not contribute towards maintaining peace and security at the international level.
The writer is Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), AJK
