As political trust collapses and new military technologies compress decision time, even small accidents have to potential to spiral into a major conflict.

Tensions between India and Pakistan are once again moving dangerously upward, with each new development narrowing the space for caution. In the aftermath of the April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 civilians dead, India responded swiftly, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty – a framework that had endured even during periods of open war – cancelling regional visa exemptions, expelling Pakistani military officers, and closing key land crossings.