India’s pursuit of regional dominance requires it to expand its influence within neighboring countries. To achieve this, India often seeks to intervene in the domestic politics of these nations to establish regimes that align with its strategic interests. However, this policy has encountered significant setbacks, with failures evident from Sri Lanka to Nepal, and now potentially Bangladesh. The primary reason for the failure of Indian policy in Bangladesh is the authoritarian governance style adopted by India’s favored leader in Dhaka – Shiekh Hasina, which prioritized New Delhi’s interests over those of her own nation. This approach ultimately led to growing frustration among Bangladeshis, culminating in her unexpected ouster.

Hasina’s authoritarian style of rule and her close proximity with India
Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule was marked by authoritarianism, rewarding loyalists while punishing critics. Her downfall was triggered by a controversial job quota policy, sparking widespread student protests in June 2024. The government’s harsh response, including crackdowns and military action, escalated the protests into a broader civil disobedience movement calling for her resignation. Hasina’s attempts to suppress dissent, control the media, and manipulate the judiciary deepened the political crisis, eroding public trust and intensifying resistance, ultimately leading to her government’s collapse.
To understand the context of these events, one must acknowledge the historically close ties between Bangladesh and India. Since Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan, India has heavily invested in the Awami League, establishing a strategic partnership. This relationship has been mutually advantageous: the Awami League, led initially by Sheikh Mujib and later by Sheikh Hasina, has supported India’s regional interests, especially given Bangladesh’s proximity to India’s eastern states with active separatist movements. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been pivotal in managing anti-India and pro-Pakistan sentiments within Bangladesh, including military actions against insurgent groups and the execution of Jamaat-e-Islami members deemed as Pakistani sympathizers. Such actions were controversial, particularly in a predominantly Muslim nation.
Since her initial term began in 1996, Hasina’s close relationship with the Indian government has been apparent. This bond was underscored when Hasina sought refuge in Agartala, where Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and other officials welcomed her. Hasina has consistently praised India’s role in the 1971 liberation war, reinforcing her alignment with Indian interests. Her 2022 visit to India further cemented this relationship, though it drew criticism from Bangladeshi opposition groups. Her close ties with India and her authoritarian governance contributed to political instability, which eventually led to her downfall.

Indian and the geopolitical chessboard
Hasina’s government faced difficulties balancing foreign policy between India and China, leading to a strategic miscalculation. Excessive reliance on India fueled anti-India sentiments among Bangladeshis, highlighting the risks of over-alignment with a single regional power. Efforts to spur economic growth with Indian aid were undermined by her repressive rule and legitimacy issues, with her rapport with India appearing more personal than professional, suggesting that her administration may have acted as an Indian proxy rather than prioritizing Bangladesh’s interests.
India’s ambition for regional hegemony, coupled with China’s rising influence, placed Bangladesh in a delicate position. Bangladesh remained one of the few steadfast allies of India, resisting China’s expanding presence. A notable incident occurred earlier this year when Hasina abruptly cut short her visit to China to favor India by awarding the Teesta water conservation project to an Indian firm, despite initial plans to engage China. Hasina justified this decision by emphasizing the geographical and strategic convergence of interests between India and Bangladesh, stating that India, as a close neighbor, should prioritize the project, particularly concerning the Teesta River’s water management.

Sheikh Hasina’s pro-India stance led to the current upheaval
The strategic alignment with India, while initially beneficial, alienated large segments of the Bangladeshi population and intensified internal dissent. The opposition perceived her actions as compromising national sovereignty in favor of Indian interests, fueling civil unrest leading to her eventual ouster. This situation highlights the complexities of foreign policy in a multipolar world and the inherent risks of over-dependence on a single ally in the volatile geopolitics of South Asia.
Sheikh Hasina’s government was a key ally in a region characterized by prevalent anti-Indian sentiments and shifting loyalties. India, often portrayed as a regional “big brother,” has been trying to position itself as a reliable partner, especially in the face of China’s growing influence. Hasina’s administration consistently honored commitments, particularly in security, and granted India access to strategic ports and infrastructure. Her leadership was crucial given the rising anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh.
The August 5th episode was unprecedented in the history of Bangladesh. After Sheikh Hasina fled to India, the protestors vandalized everything associated with the Awami League. Even the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was vandalized, and anything associated with India was burned or broken. The Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka was burned down, displaying the Bangladeshi people’s anger against India. The vandalization of Awami League murals and the burning of Indian-associated things signified the expiration of Indian influence in Bangladesh. Earlier this year, after the fraught elections, opponents of the Awami League had even called for a boycott of Indian goods, accusing New Delhi of covertly maintaining Hasina in power.
The events leading to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina underscore the complexities of managing domestic and foreign policy, especially in a region where anti-Indian sentiments are prevalent. India’s influence in Bangladesh now faces a critical juncture as it grapples with the repercussions of its involvement in the country’s internal politics.