With the rapid pace of technological advancements, the nature of warfare is undergoing a profound transformation. Traditional modes of conflict are increasingly being replaced by more complex and sophisticated forms of engagement, particularly in the cyber domain. This evolution is reshaping the landscape of international security, with far-reaching implications for state sovereignty, defense mechanisms, and the global balance of power. The recent cyberattack in Lebanon, specifically targeting the pager network, represents a significant development in this trend. It has been regarded as one of the most impactful cyberattacks in history, highlighting the growing potential of digital warfare to disrupt critical infrastructure and destabilize states. Such incidents demonstrate how cyber operations can now serve as vital components of modern conflict, fundamentally altering how wars are waged. Normalizing these tactics adds new dimensions to warfare, where the boundaries between physical and digital battlegrounds are increasingly blurred.
New Era of War
Hezbollah started using pagers after direction from their leader to replace cell phones following the Gaza war, as they would be under surveillance. The pagers they started using were fitted with explosive devices by Israeli Intelligence agency MOSSAD, the worst intersection of technology and corporate terrorism. Those pagers are used not only by Hezbollah fighters but also by doctors, nurses, paramedics, teachers, charity workers, and other civilians. The pager explosion led to 12 causalities including two children and two health workers while wounded 2800 people.
International law prohibits weaponizing an object used by civilians. These two waves of deadly explosions were also condemned by the UN rights Chief as a violation of international humanitarian law. The global silence on the Gaza war somehow made Israel blunt in its humanitarian violations at the transnational level. It also put into question the unperturbed silence maintained by the international community on violation of international law that would not serve the globe. It is evident in eruption of another Lebanon war following Gaza war by Israel.
Implications for South Asia
Since the conflict resolution through dialogue has reversed in exchange for the use of force. The development of technology and its incorporation to achieve the vested interests of the state has significantly changed the theatre of war, where instead of a defined combat zone the war is fought in grey zone areas and the whole nation is the target.
In the case of South Asia, this strategic shift in the theatre of war would have gross implications with India getting access to combat hardware from Israel and other Western allies. The strategic agreement with the West, such as BECA, COMCASA, LEMOA and GSOMIA give India access to satellite imageries and other such critical technology, this increase of access can potential add onto India’s capacity of carrying out attacks on the similar pattern. As over the last decade, India has imported 2.9 billion dollars worth of military hardware from Israel including missiles, surveillance and combat drones and radars. India is already employing the Israeli model of occupation in Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. For the surveillance purpose, new IDs have been assigned to the local Kashmiris followed by the installation of facial recognition technology. It would be used to systematically oppress people in Jammu and Kashmir who are protesting against the Indian government. Indian right wing political commentator, Anand Raganathan openly called for Israel-like solution in Kashmir amidst ongoing war in Gaza. India’s colonial-like settlement project in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) reflects a striking replication of the Israeli occupation model, signaling an ideological and tactical alignment between New Delhi and Tel Aviv.
India’s transition towards a more aggressive and proactive military strategy, coupled with its cyber warfare capabilities, threatens to upend the delicate balance of credible minimum deterrence that has long been central to South Asian strategic stability. Since the Sunderji Doctrine, India has adopted increasingly offensive military postures, particularly concerning Pakistan and the Kashmir dispute. These actions are not only unsettling but also shake the foundation of strategic stability in the region.
The pager attacks in Lebanon will usher the policymakers to reorient the security calculus Recently, Former Turkish MP Ümit Özdağ suggested, “All state institutions, especially the military, police, gendarmerie, and intelligence, should not use communication devices other than those produced by Aselsan.” Israel’s manipulation of technology for the vested interest would have a setback in the export of Western technologies. It has brought a great shift worldwide where states would now be opting for domestic products. Pakistan, in turn, has consistently sought to maintain this balance, striving to preserve stability amidst India’s growing militarization and revisionist policies. Islamabad’s focus remains on ensuring that its credible minimum deterrence both qualitative and quantitative stays robust, capable of addressing the evolving threats posed by India’s technological and military advancements. As cyber warfare becomes an integral component of modern conflict, maintaining a sophisticated and adaptable deterrence posture is vital for safeguarding national security in this volatile geopolitical environment.
To secure itself from the threat of any such incident, Pakistan has to boost its domestic production in communication and other technological domains while collaborating with reliable partners like China. Furthermore, it also has to secure its supply chain as the pagers manipulated by Israel traced to be exploited during a three-month port layover while reaching from Taiwan to Hungary to Lebanon.
Authors
Syeda Tahreem Bukhari, Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK
Abdul Basit, Associate Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK
