After more than four years of stalemate, India and China have brokered a provisional border agreement, announced on October 23, 2024. This accord, seen as a breakthrough, enables Indian forces to resume patrolling the Line of Actual Control (LAC). However, this deal reflects a tactical pause rather than a genuine resolution, driven by challenges that compelled both powers towards a fragile détente which stands on a creaky rock. For China, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and intensified friction with the West, particularly the US, have necessitated a recalibration of its regional priorities. Simultaneously, India faces growing regional isolation, separatist movements, and internal instability, prompting a reassessment of its strategic posture. Yet, these immediate pressures that led to this temporary thaw do not resolve the deeper strategic mistrust. The longevity of this truce remains uncertain, as both nations are likely to re-engage in competitive posturing once their broader strategic priorities shift, suggesting that this detente may be more of a tactical respite than a lasting peace.

Militarization and Strategic Posturing in the Taiwan Strait

China is grappling with economic and strategic challenges, especially in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Tensions with the U.S. and EU have risen over tech restrictions and trade, while China faces allegations of aiding Russia’s war efforts.

In the Taiwan Strait, China’s recent military drills prompted U.S. and Canadian monitoring. President Xi’s visit to Fujian Province, near Taiwan, included calls for military readiness, suggesting Fujian as a launch site if China pursues its claim. Balancing these goals, China is also mending ties with Japan and the UK, reflecting Deng Xiaoping’s maxim: “Hide your strength, bide your time.”

India’s Regional Dilemmas and Domestic Pressures

India faces numerous challenges both domestically and internationally. Separatist movements persist in regions like Jammu and Kashmir, and its “India Out” stance toward neighboring countries hampers its regional ambitions. India is increasingly isolated within its own region, reflecting a foreign policy often marked by overreach and imbalanced ambition. This has led neighboring states to seek new alliances, further straining India’s position. Domestically, radical factions create destabilizing challenges that India struggles to contain. Externally, pressures from Canada and the Five Eyes alliance encouraged India to engage with Pakistan at the SCO summit and consider a border agreement with China.

Realigning Strategy: India’s Chanakyan Philosophy in Diplomacy

Indian strategic culture, shaped by thinkers like Chanakya Kautilya, emphasizes peace as a strategic tool equal to war when it serves state goals, allowing alliance-building and stability while preparing for future expansion. This approach consolidates strength and prevents multi-front conflicts. Currently, India has eased tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to focus on the Line of Control (LOC).

At the UN General Assembly, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated that the “only issue” with Pakistan is its “illegally occupied” territory, challenging UN resolutions on a Kashmir plebiscite and hinting at a military approach. Previously, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Internal Affairs Minister Amit Shah also suggested a readiness for military action if necessary.

Also, India desires to focus its attention on internal instabilities and economic strengthening. India’s foreign direct investment has declined for two consecutive years, prompting calls to attract Chinese capital. Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran and business leader Vipin Sondhi argue that selective Chinese investments especially in non-strategic sectors like EVs and solar could boost jobs and enhance India’s global supply chain integration, balancing economic gains with security concerns.

Russia’s Diplomatic Tightrope: Strengthening SCO and BRICS

Russia’s efforts toward détente were evident, as it sought to ease tensions and strengthen BRICS as a counterweight to the West alongside China. Russia and China, particularly, are putting extra effort into strengthening forums such as SCO and BRICS. Even at the BRICS summit after the unveiling of the Sino-India border deal, India reiterated its cushion for the West. Prime Minister Modi dismissed the notion of BRICS as an anti-West bloc, emphasizing that it should project unity rather than division. He articulated that BRICS must signal to the world its commitment to humanity’s broader interests rather than appear as an alternative to established global institutions. Modi highlighted the importance of BRICS as a transformative force, not one seeking to supplant current systems, clarifying that it should not be wielded as a platform against Western powers. Furthermore, he set strategic boundaries on BRICS expansion, particularly opposing the potential inclusion of Pakistan.

What are the prospects of sustainability India-China Détente: Realities and Constraints

The earlier-mentioned stance accentuates India’s commitment to maintaining its ties with the U.S. and Western allies, signaling that a shift away from these partnerships is unlikely. Furthermore, during bilateral talks with Modi, Chinese President Xi notably omitted any mention of resolving border issues. This dynamic has significant implications, especially given shifting perceptions of global governance. India, a key strategic partner of the U.S., regards China as a “long-term threat” a view shared in Washington. The U.S.-India alliance is strategically anchored in balancing China’s regional dominance, as any initiatives empowering Beijing run counter to American strategic interests.

The Fragile Equilibrium

The bilateral relationship between India and China continues to be fraught with underlying tensions stemming from historical irredentist claims, notably concerning disputed territories such as Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin. While a fragile détente exists, the prospect of enduring peace is undermined by India’s regional aspirations for hegemony, which are further amplified by its alignment with U.S. strategic interests. This recalibration of power, however, is in direct conflict with China’s broader regional objectives and its preference for stability through cooperative engagement.

The 1962 war and subsequent border skirmishes, along with ongoing disputes over patrolling zones in Ladakh, underscore the persistent territorial discord. The recent truce should be seen more as a temporary tactical pause than a long-term resolution, with India’s domestic pressures and China’s assertive posturing likely to reignite tensions. While the agreement may project a veneer of peace, it fails to address the fundamental strategic mistrust that underpins the relationship.

Moreover, the divergent strategic outlooks of both nations—India’s zero-sum approach, which capitalizes on Western alliances, versus China’s emphasis on stability—highlight the enduring complexities of their relationship. This dynamic is further shaped by tensions within BRICS, where India’s cautious stance against anti-Western coalitions, primarily driven by Russia and China, reflects a delicate balancing act in its foreign policy.

Drawing a parallel with the 2022 India-Pakistan ceasefire, which resulted in little substantive improvement in bilateral relations, the Sino-Indian truce similarly appears tenuous. As underscored by India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, normalization will depend on a phased approach: troop disengagement, de-escalation, and the establishment of strategic equilibrium. Given the entrenched rivalry and clashing strategic priorities, the path to genuine stability remains elusive. In essence, the current peace is precarious, serving more as a tactical reprieve within the broader context of power and influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Author

Abdul Basit, Associate Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK