Before the sun could rise on October 26, 2024, Israel operationalized its largest aerial attack on Iran’s soil again. It was a response for the night of October 1, 2024, when approximately 200 ballistic missiles were seen as asteroids falling from the sky on Israel. It was a retaliation attack by Iran for Israel’s aggressive force posture in Gaza and Lebanon and a string of assassinations Israel had conducted of senior Hamas and Hizbollah leadership. Emboldened by the strategic advantage gained through the deployment of the advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system by the United States, Israel conveyed its intention to intensify the conflict, seemingly unconcerned about potential reprisals. Iranian foreign minister has recently termed the Israeli attack a ‘new raid’ and has vowed to respond at a proper time and in ‘an appropriate way’. Whether the skies above Tel Aviv would withstand whatever Tehran might unleash in retaliation is a question difficult to answer.
On the last day of October, Iran warned of a ‘harsh and regretful’ response to the Israel’s October 26 direct Israeli attack on Iranian military facilities, signaling the ongoing series of tit-for-tat attacks between the two regional adversaries is far from over. Experts believe that the retaliation from the Islamic Republic is likely on the cards as any delay can be construed in Israel as a vulnerable Iranian defense posture, making Israeli attacks on Iran a new normal. This time, Iran may choose to increase the intensity of its attacks than its earlier attack conducted on October 1, 2024.
These alarming developments have brought in sharp focus the utility and efficacy of advance air defense systems, particularly THAAD anti-missile system the US has deployed in Israel to protect it from any future Iranian barrage of ballistic missiles.
The last Iranian attack revealed significant vulnerabilities in Israel’s autonomous, advanced, and modern air defence systems. There were more than 30 missiles which exploded on land. One missile came close to Mossad’s headquarters in Tel Aviv. This incident has raised concerns about the effectiveness of its air defence systems. As a partner to Israel, the United States on October 13, 2024, sent a THAAD system to strengthen Israel’s security. While this system is highly advanced, it brings with it a complex set of strategic implications.
The THAAD is a ground-based air defence system, mainly designed to counter incoming ballistic missiles. It typically consists of six truck-mounted launchers containing eight interceptors each, a transportable radar with a fire control unit, and it needs nearly a hundred soldiers to operate. It is being deployed in Israel to strengthen Tel Aviv’s already advanced multilayered air defence capability which includes the Iron Dome, David’s sling, and Arrows 3 systems. Israel has long relied on a combination of these multilayered air defence systems – mostly developed in collaboration within the United States – to obstruct missile attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah. They are integrated to intercept rockets drones and missiles at various altitudes, speeds, and distances. However, the Iranian barrage of missile strikes exposed gaps in these layers of protection and overwhelmed the systems in some places.
Figure 1 Courtesy to Wall Street Journal with the help of RUSI and CSIS analysts
This event has shaken the perception that Israel’s air defence systems provide fool-proof security. Despite its technological sophistication, no system is perfect. The over-reliance on such defence can lead to a false sense of security, thereby encouraging Israel to up the ante by attacking Iran without fully realizing the risk of retaliation.
The deployment of THAAD is part of the US’s broader commitment to supply support to Israel. The US military presence in the region is substantial with around 50000 troops stationed in nearby areas including Jordan and the Gulf. Additionally, US warships are patrolling the Eastern Mediterranean. The purpose is to ensure a constant military presence for the protection of Israel.
The 2022 US National Security Strategy (NSS) underscores that missile defense systems – including THAAD – are meant as a last resort, intended to deter adversaries rather than escalate conflicts. However, if Israel becomes more aggressive – believing it has an impenetrable defense – the situation could spiral out of control.
There can be two possible ends of this situation. Firstly, what if these systems fail in a moment of crisis? If they fail and Iran succeeds in cascading down its missiles on Israel, it could push Israel toward a nuclear option as the last resort to maintain its hitherto escalation domination over Iran. Second, given Hezbollah’s recent successful missile barrage hitting the mainland Israel, it seems that Israel’s quest for invincibility will further be greatly challenged if Iran unleashes second episode of such missile attack as a response. As Tel Aviv does not appear to be backing off from attacking civilians in both Lebanon and Gaza, and it is perpetually targeting Iranian interests in the region, the escalation ladder between the both sides keeps increasing. The installation of THAAD, in such a precarious scenario, makes Iran wary of Israel’s intentions of attacking Iran. If Tehran feels that it is being further pushed against the wall, in order to maintain deterrence against Israel’s increasingly advanced defence systems being provided by the West and its aggressive force posture, it may see nuclear weapons as the last resort to ensure a comprehensive deterrence against Israel.
Also, the arrival of the THAAD system in the region may possibly lead to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. With THAAD and other air defence systems’ false sense of security, Israel may feel more secure and embolden to escalate the conflict into other regional countries, including Iraq.
Now, Iran has two options. First, there is a chance that Iran’s October 1st attack was intended as a signal of deterrence by not fully destroying counter-value targets of Israel but this time it may attempt to ensure a precision targeting. Second, Iran may fire more ballistic missiles this time as the improved multi-layer defence of Israel may resist up to 200 or more missiles. But nonetheless, such actions could work as a catalytic event for Iran to pursue its nuclear weapons program, particularly if Israel retaliates further by targeting Iran’s nuclear installations. Iran may view a nuclear bomb as a necessary deterrent in a volatile region, a choice not only a prerequisite for its national security but also a strategic tool to compel Israel to recognize its legitimate national interests.
In conclusion, the addition of THAAD into Israel’s Armory has put the region on a knife-edge. The deployment of the THAAD system may provide Israel with a temporary sense of security while acting as a catalyst for conflict escalation. Both Israel and Iran must recognise the catastrophic potential of a full-scale military confrontation especially one that involves nuclear weapons.
Author’s Bio
Muhammad Ali Baig is a researcher at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS). X @alibaig111
Mobin Jafar Mir is a researcher at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS). X @jafar_mobeen
