On the side lines of the D8 summit, leaders of Pakistan and Bangladesh held a bilateral meeting to discuss issues of mutual interest. This engagement reflects the growing warmth in bilateral relations especially after the fall of Hasina’s government in Dhaka. Bangladesh witnessed the most significant turn of history as Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee due to massive protests led by students. The repressive actions by law enforcement agencies ultimately resulted in her political demise as she resigned and fled to the neighbouring India on August 5, 2024. During her years in government, the Bangladesh-Pakistan relations remained tumultuous due to various factors. As the interim government under Muhammad Yunus took over, analysing the trajectory of Bangladesh-Pakistan relations in the post-Hasina era is important.
Even though Pakistan formally recognized Bangladesh in 1974, the historic events of separation of East Pakistan haunted the bilateral relations. Regardless, Pakistan and Bangladesh took various initiatives to set the tone of relations especially during the tenure of Zia-ur-Rahman and Hossain Mohammad Ershad. Both countries inked various trade and cultural agreements to increase bilateral engagement. However, a critical analysis indicates that domestic and regional political issues dominated the bilateral relationship and both countries could not build a sustainable relationship in the following years. The first and foremost factor is Dhaka’s domestic dynamics and political environment. The two major political parties that ruled Bangladesh since its formation are the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). It has become a predictable pattern of downsliding in bilateral relationships when AL takes the helm of the affairs in Bangladesh. AL used the anti-Pakistan rhetoric to gain domestic political advantage, which was absent when the BNP came to power. A prominent example of this is the issue of ‘Apology,’ which was never raised until Sheikh Hasina assumed power in 1996. This issue was raised again during her second term in office in 2009, and relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh hit rock bottom.
The second factor that augmented the Hasina’s narrative was AL’s closer alignment with India. AL’s tilt towards India is not new. India’s overt support to separatist forces of East Pakistan back in 1971, enabling the dismemberment of Pakistan is one of the prominent irritant of relations. The relations between India and Bangladesh were bitter during the late 1970s, it was when Pakistan was forging diplomatic relations with Bangladesh. During the 1980s, the relations were strained, but when Hasina assumed power, a new chapter started in India-Bangladesh relations, as relations between the two sides deteriorated simultaneously. She resolved many issues with India, prominently the water-sharing dispute in 1996, the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in 2015, and Bangladesh-India maritime delimitation in the Bay of Bengal in 2014. Additionally, India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trade partner, with a trading volume of around US$18bn as of 2022, and a member of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). At the regional level, Hasina’s government supported Modi’s decision to boycott the SAARC summit held in Pakistan in 2016, making the future of such regional organizations uncertain in South Asia.
Another important element that hindered prospects of cordial relations was the historical baggage that both countries carried since the fall of Dhaka in 1971. As they say, ‘time can heal,’ but this doesn’t apply to this case. The perception of animosity and hatred in some segments of the society of Bangladesh against Pakistan has been shaped by the Awami League for political motives. Awami League ensured during its three consecutive tenures to direct all the national holidays in Bangladesh against Pakistan. Such steps were meant to fuel tensions between the two countries.
Pakistan desires a cordial relationship with Bangladesh, as evidenced by the visits that heads of the Pakistani government made to Dhaka from Bhutto to Pervez Musharraf. During his visit to Bangladesh in 1998, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, ‘Let us learn from the mistakes of the past and build a better tomorrow for our people,’ which perspicuously demonstrated the willingness of Islamabad to improve the relations. During his historic visit to Dhaka in 2002, President Musharraf showed a desire to let go of the past and build a future together. This was the last visit made by any heads of state of Pakistan to Dhaka. During the second tenure of Hasina in Bangladesh, Irfanur Rehman Raja, Pakistan’s deputy high commissioner in Dhaka, was deemed persona non grata after he passed a statement about the Mukti Bahini, leading to a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Pakistan’s criticism to the execution of Jamaat-i-Islami leaders was also denounced by Dhaka. Former PM Imran Khan spoke with Hasina during his tenure, but nothing significant came out.
The analysis above shows the relative deterioration of Pakistan-Bangladesh relations when AL was in power in Dhaka. With the change in government in Bangladesh, there is a higher likelihood of improved bilateral relations due to several reasons. Increasing demand from Bangladesh to extradite Hasina from India is fuelling ‘anti-India’ sentiment in Bangladesh. Several symbols related to India were also attacked by the protestors. Additionally, the death and destruction caused by heavy flooding during August 2024 in Bangladesh was augmented by India’s uninformed water release from the Dumbur dam, as per the statement from Bangladesh’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The less compromising tone from officials in Dhaka shows that it will no longer be under Indian influence, which creates a healthy environment for improved Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.
Under the leadership of Yunus, Dhaka’s overall regional outlook has also shifted from anti-Pakistan to a more cooperative approach to address bilateral as well as regional issues. Earlier, this year, the PM of Pakistan met Bangladesh chief Advisor on the sidelines of the UNGA meeting, where they discussed bilateral relations. Muhammad Yunus suggested SAARC as the stepping stone for revitalizing the relationship between the two countries. On the flip side, the Pakistani PM recently called former high commissioners of Pakistan who served in Dhaka to formulate a strategy to reset ties with Bangladesh. As the country was hit by catastrophic floods in the summer of this year, PM Shehbaz wrote a letter to offer humanitarian assistance.
Pakistan-Bangladesh relations have long been viewed through the prism of events of 1971, which needs a change. The first step towards this would be to establish people-to-people contact as masses in both countries have goodwill and positive feelings for each other. The relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan is transitioning, and Pakistan should be politically prudent by refraining from irresponsible comments on the internal affairs of Bangladesh. To encourage collaboration and lessen animosity, Pakistan should prioritize its growth, advance political stability, and re-establish economic and cultural links from earlier agreements. The post-Hasina Dhaka seems to be willing to cooperate with Pakistan. The political will on both sides can push the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations towards a positive trajectory. To harness this, both sides must take steps to build confidence while letting go of the bitter past and pursuing mutual forgiveness. A forward-looking approach instead of a regressive one will likely increase the possibilities of cooperation between the two countries. Pakistan and Bangladesh should prioritize enhancing their commercial, trade, and economic relations to promote stability and progress in their countries, as cooperation in these areas may improve bilateral ties and regional prosperity.
Author
Ayesha Sikandar is an International Relations scholar pursuing an MPhil from the National Defense University (NDU). She is currently affiliated with the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) as a Research Associate. Her areas of interest include the Asian region, with a particular focus on China and the politics of South Asia.
