On February 14, 2019, a massive explosion ripped through a convoy of Central Reserve Police Force personnel in Pulwama district of Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir, killing 40 soldiers and sending shockwaves across the region. What followed was not just a military escalation but a political spectacle carefully choreographed for electoral gains. The official Indian narrative swiftly blamed Jaish-e-Mohammed, but cracks in the story soon emerged. Leaked messages, insider confessions, and glaring security lapses suggested something far more sinister—a meticulously engineered crisis to fuel hyper-nationalism ahead of the 2019 elections. Modi, riding the wave of outrage, launched the Balakot airstrikes, turning military action into a campaign slogan. Yet, while he basked in domestic glory, internationally, India faced humiliation as Pakistan decisively countered its aggression by shooting down two Indian fighter jets, capturing a pilot, and exposing India’s reckless brinkmanship. Now, five years since the Pulwama-Balakot crisis, it is imperative to look back at what happened then and what followed, to explore the crisis beyond India’s official narrative.
Political Exploitation of Pulwama and Balakot
The timing of the Pulwama attack was suspicious, given its proximity to the 2019 Indian general elections. Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party quickly seized upon the incident to stoke nationalist sentiments and portray themselves as defenders of India’s security. The Balakot airstrikes, which followed on February 26, were hailed as a significant military success within India domestic audience, despite Pakistan’s immediate response proving otherwise. In an April 9, 2019, while addressing a rally in Ausa in Maharashtra’s Latur, Narendra Modi imparted, “Can your first vote be dedicated to those who carried out the air strike.” He further added: “I want to tell the first-time voters, can your first vote be dedicated to the veer jawans (valiant soldiers) who carried out the air strike in Pakistan. Can your first vote be dedicated to the veer shaheed (brave martyrs) of Pulwama .?”
However, Modi’s triumphalist rhetoric did not align with ground realities. Pakistan’s swift retaliation on February 27 resulted in the downing of two Indian fighter jets, one of which was a MiG-21. Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, the pilot of the MiG-21, was captured by Pakistan. In a further display of India’s disarray, Indian air defenses mistakenly shot down their own Mi-17 helicopter in Budgam, resulting in six additional Indian casualties. These blunders showed the strategic miscalculations on India’s part, yet BJP’s well-oiled propaganda machinery effectively obscured these failures from the Indian public.
Cracks in the official Narrative
Leaked messages from Arnab Goswami, a prominent Indian TV anchor, imply that someone, for political dividends, orchestrated the Pulwama blast to justify an attack on Pakistan. Messages between Goswami and Partho Dasgupta, former CEO of the Broadcast Audience Research Council (BARC), indicate foreknowledge of both the Pulwama attack and the Balakot strike. According to a 3,400-page supplementary charge sheet filed by the Mumbai Police in their investigation into the alleged Television Ratings Point scam, on February 23, 2019, just three days before the Balakot strike, Goswami texted Dasgupta stating, “On another note something big will happen.” When Dasgupta asked, “Dawood?” referring to the notorious gangster, Goswami responded, “No sir Pakistan. Something major will be done this time.” Dasgupta replied, “Good. It’s good for big man in this season. He will sweep polls then.” Further elaborating, Dasgupta inquired, “Strike? Or bigger,” to which Goswami replied, “Bigger than a normal strike. And also on the same time something major on Kashmir. On Pakistan, the government is confident of striking in a way that people will be elated.”
In an interview with Karan Thapar, Satya Pal Malik, the Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, during the Pulwama incident, made shocking revelations, implicating Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Malik described how there were adverse intelligence reports warning of an imminent threat throughout January and February 2019. Despite these reports, a convoy of a thousand CRPF soldiers was permitted to travel by road, which Malik indicated was “clearly asking for trouble.” Malik revealed, “CRPF people asked for aircrafts to ferry their people because such a big convoy never goes by road.” However, he stated that the Home Ministry, led by Rajnath Singh, refused to provide the aircraft. Malik emphasized, “Had they asked me, I would’ve given them an aircraft, no matter how. They only needed five aircraft, which wasn’t given to them.” He recounted informing Prime Minister Modi about this lapse, to which Modi responded by telling him to “keep quiet now”. Staggered Karan Thapar questions, “when you had told the Prime Minister that this has happened because of us, that they had asked for the aircraft and Home Ministry did not give them, and the Prime Minister asked you to keep quiet?.” Malik answered “He said don’t let people know we made a mistake.” National Security Advisor Ajit Doval also advised Malik to stay silent, stating, “Satyapal, don’t say this.” Malik concluded that the government decided to place the entire blame on Pakistan, aiming to gain political credit and boost their election prospects, noting, “This was in some way, a clever policy of the government that blame Pakistan…and we will get credit, and that will help our election.”
The National Investigation Agency (NIA) charge sheet named 19 individuals, including JeM leaders, as responsible for the Pulwama attack, asserting Pakistan’s involvement. However, local factors complicate the narrative. Adil Ahmed Dar, the suicide bomber, had a history of grievances against Indian security forces. His radicalization followed severe personal trauma and the brutal suppression of protests in Kashmir. Adil Ahmed Dar, a resident of Pulwama district in Indian-administered Kashmir, was 22 years old, quiet, and shy. He was driven to commit the attack by the Indian government’s harsh response to protests following the killing of Burhan Wani. During these protests, hundreds were killed, and thousands injured. The use of pellet guns blinded many young Kashmiris. Adil himself was shot in the leg, rendering him bedridden for almost a year. The deep scars left by the Indian occupation have rekindled the armed struggle among local Kashmiris. A significant number of well-educated youth are choosing to take up arms over pursuing peaceful paths. The unresolved grievances of the past are leading to a bleak future. India’s harsh and indifferent attitude towards the suffering of Kashmiris has pushed many towards the path of revenge. Jibran Ahmad, a Pulwama resident, encapsulated this sentiment, saying, “You become a militant in a police station or an army camp, not inside the four corners of your house.” Many of those arrested by the police in 2016 joined the militancy, possibly believing that it was better than facing daily humiliation.”
While Modi’s domestic political strategy succeeded, India suffered significant international embarrassment. Pakistan’s measured response to Indian aggression, including the return of Abhinandan Varthaman as a gesture of goodwill, implicates India as the aggressor and Pakistan as the responsible and rational actor. This crisis demonstrated Pakistan’s diplomatic and strategic maturity, successfully managing escalation while exposing India’s reckless militarism.
Additionally, the Pulwama crisis emphasized the ever-present danger of conflict in the region. The Kashmir dispute remains a nuclear flashpoint, and incidents like Pulwama serve as reminders of the potential for escalation. With both nations possessing nuclear weapons, any miscalculation could lead to catastrophic consequences. The international community must recognize that the Kashmir dispute is a ticking nuclear time bomb. Without a just resolution involving all stakeholders, the region will continue to teeter on the brink of disaster. To prevent future crises, India and Pakistan must engage in substantive dialogue, facilitated by international mediation if necessary. The people of Kashmir, who remain at the heart of this conflict, must be given their due right to self-determination. Only through a peaceful and just resolution can South Asia avoid another Pulwama-like episode, which risks plunging the region into nuclear catastrophe.
In the hindsight, it is evident that the Pulwama crisis was a carefully orchestrated smokescreen designed to serve Prime Minister Modi’s political ambitions. While it was intended to not only secure electoral gains but also project India as a dominant regional power and pressure Pakistan by linking it with terrorism, these broader strategic objectives remained unfulfilled. Pakistan’s measured and calculated response not only countered India’s military aggression but also exposed its reckless brinkmanship. Pakistan demonstrated strategic maturity, preventing India from dictating the narrative. Instead of isolating Pakistan, the crisis highlighted India’s own miscalculations and the limitations of its aggressive posturing. The key lesson for South Asian strategists is that true stability in the region cannot be achieved through manufactured crises or reckless military adventurism. Instead, it lies in addressing the unresolved Kashmir dispute. Until this fundamental issue is resolved, South Asia will remain caught in a perilous cycle of strategic deception, brinkmanship, and the constant risk of catastrophic escalation.
Authors
Abdul Rehman, Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK
Saba Ghulam Nabi, Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK
