Six years after the February 2019 Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrikes, strategic stability in South Asia remains fragile. The possibility of another crisis cannot be ruled out, especially as India continues to aspires for regional dominance. New Delhi’s unilateral approach to Kashmir further fuels tensions, creating a security environment prone to escalation. At the same time, India’s ongoing expansion of its conventional and strategic forces adds to Pakistan’s security concerns, unsettling the balance of power in the region. India’s decision to conduct airstrikes deep into Pakistani territory after the Pulwama attack reflected its policy to engage with Pakistan below the nuclear threshold. It disrupted established deterrence norms, assuming Pakistan would refrain from escalation due to nuclear war risks. Pakistan’s measured response through Operation Swift Retort reaffirmed its commitment to deterrence, signaling its readiness to defend its sovereignty while preventing full-scale war. As in the aerial engagement, the Pakistan Air Force downed two Indian fighter jets and captured a pilot, later releasing him, a move that eased tensions and helped restore regional strategic stability.
The aftermath of the crisis showed India’s reckless conduct and the Modi government’s exploitation of the incident for political gain, using anti-Pakistan propaganda to mobilize its voter base. This was later confirmed by former Governor Satyapal Malik in an interview with The Wire, revealing that India’s leadership is willing to provoke instability and risk escalation for domestic political advantage. Tensions escalated further when the Indian government revoked Articles 370 and 35A, aiming to alter the demographics of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) while sidelining its disputed status. Pakistan’s confidence-building measures, including the construction and opening of the Kartarpur Corridor, received little acknowledgment from India, leaving bilateral relations strained.
Militarily, India accelerated its modernization efforts after the Balakot crisis, acquiring Rafale fighter jets, enhancing its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, and expanding its surveillance and space-based intelligence capabilities. Backed by Western support, these advancements have widened the conventional military gap, heightening Pakistan’s security concerns. During the National Conference titled ‘Pakistan’s Resolve to Kashmir Conflict, Peace, and Stability’ in Muzaffarabad on February 27, 2025, it was reiterated that India’s military buildup, even with external backing, cannot coerce Pakistan into strategic submission. Pakistan remains resolute in safeguarding its deterrence posture, with the Quid Pro Quo Plus doctrine firmly in place—ensuring that any future aggression will be met with a stronger, more decisive response.
Pakistan has repeatedly called for arms control agreements, including a strategic restraint regime to build trust and transparency in South Asia. However, India has refused to engage, seeing itself as a rising global power with strong ties to the U.S. and the West. This refusal fuels Pakistan’s security concerns and increases regional tensions. Without a framework to manage military capabilities and open dialogue, the risk of misperceptions and miscalculations remains high. The lack of institutionalized crisis management mechanisms between India and Pakistan makes the situation even more volatile. While some communication exists, there are no structured talks to prevent small incidents from escalating into major crises. The growing use of advanced technologies like AI and cyber warfare adds new risks to an already volatile relationship.
Six years after the Pulwama-Balakot crisis, it should be learned that nuclear deterrence may not fully prevent small-scale conflicts, therefore, there has to be a stronger understanding between the two states that without arms control or crisis talks, future conflicts could spiral out of control, especially with the Kashmir Conflict still unresolved. Also, the growing U.S.-India partnership, aimed at countering China, has weakened Pakistan’s trust in international mediation. By strengthening India without considering Pakistan’s concerns, the West is adding to regional instability, making diplomatic intervention less reliable, even in nuclear crises.
The current regional and strategic milieu suggests call for renewed efforts to stabilize India-Pakistan Relations. Global powers must recognize the region’s complexities and consider Pakistan’s concerns when shaping their policies toward India to promote lasting peace in the region by taking into account the risks of nuclear escalation.
The current hotlines should be reinforced with the establishment of more structured, formal and implementable hotlines that can help the political and military leadership to engage directly in any future crises. The BrahMos missile incident exhibits the urgent need for nuclear risk reduction measures to prevent accidental escalation. While Pakistan’s restraint in the situation demonstrated responsible decision-making, formalized mechanisms are necessary for managing such events in the future. Pakistan’s proposal for a strategic restraint regime remains a viable framework for creating transparency and reducing tensions. The growing militarization of AI and advanced technologies further intensify the need for bilateral arms control agreements to mitigate emerging risks. Additionally, reviving SAARC as a functional platform for regional cooperation could help break the diplomatic deadlock, encouraging dialogue and stability. Long-term peace is only possible through a sincere commitment to resolving core disputes via peaceful negotiations.
Author
Tayyaba Khurshid, Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK.
