India-Pakistan Development of Drones: Implications for Strategic Stability

by CISSAJK

AbstractThis paper examines the implications of drone technology advancements by India and Pakistan on strategic stability in South Asia. It addresses a critical research gap by analysing how these developments impact deterrence, crisis stability, and arms race dynamics in the region. The study questions whether the rapid growth of drone capabilities disrupts established deterrence frameworks, heightens crisis instability and accelerates arms race. Using a qualitative approach, the paper draws on primary and secondary sources, including military reports and academic research. The findings indicate that India’s pursuit of swarm and autonomous drones poses a direct threat to deterrence stability by introducing counterforce capabilities targeting Pakistan’s second-strike assets. In contrast, Pakistan’s drone use is focused on reinforcing its deterrent posture and improving crisis management through enhanced Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations. However, India’s technological edge increases the risk of escalation which may likely destabilise the regional security environment. The ongoing technological buildup in both countries also triggers an action-reaction cycle which may likely undermine arms race stability in South Asia. This study emphasises the urgency of addressing India’s destabilising drone developments to maintain strategic balance and prevent escalation.

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