The volatile strategic landscape of South Asia has always been an apprehension for global stability. In the context of two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, the latter asserts that its defense posture is always India-centric amid multiple conflicts, mainly over the issue of IIOJK. Numerous wars and border skirmishes have occurred between the two countries since partition. In May 2025, their militaries once again engaged in sub-conventional combat. According to international observers (Al-Jazeera, the New York Times, Reuters, and CNN), Pakistan inflicted heavy losses on the Indian military and emerged victorious after a four-day war. Pakistan not only outnumbered India in battle, but also succeeded diplomatically. The humiliation India experienced during and after the conflict was unprecedented, prompting India to again employ a key element of its strategic culture: using propaganda and false accusations to malign the adversary. It has been observed that shortly after losing credibility, militarily and diplomatically, India launched an international campaign to tarnish Pakistan’s nuclear program once again. A series of articles were published in international magazines claiming that Pakistan is expanding its missile program and developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that could reach the mainland USA. This propaganda appears to reflect Indian frustration and an attempt to overshadow the recognition Pakistan has received from the international community for acting as a responsible nuclear state in an extremely fragile environment. The preceding arguments further clarify whether this renewed ICBM narrative is a strategic reality or just another smokescreen.

An Intercontinental Ballistic Missile is a land-based long-range missile capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads, with a range starting from 5500 km and above. Due to their powerful and deadly nature, ICBMs are considered strategic defensive weapons. They can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), meaning a single missile can deliver several warheads to separate targets. ICBMs can be launched from land-based silos, mobile launchers (trucks or trains), or submarines (Submarine- Launched Ballistic Missiles or SLBMs). Modern ICBMs are more accurate and have larger payload capacities than earlier models. Russia was the pioneer in acquiring ICBMs in 1958, followed by the US in 1959, and about 20 years later, China joined the club. Today, the US, Russia, China, France, India, the UK, Israel, and North Korea are known to possess operational ICBMs.

Pakistan’s decision to go nuclear in 1998 was a compelled response to India’s nuclear tests, as it aimed to restore regional strategic stability rather than engage in an arms race.  If we study Pakistan’s existing missile inventory, the minimum range of 70 km is possessed by the Nasr missile, which was developed against Indian Cold Start Doctrine, and the maximum range of 2750 km is covered by the Shaheen III, reaching all across India up to the Andaman and Nicobar islands. Pakistan’s short and medium-range Ballistic missiles are well enough to counter the threat posed by India. Pakistan has a neighbor-focused nuclear strategy that uses full-spectrum deterrence to counter threats from its eastern border. Besides going against that logic, developing ICBMs would challenge Pakistan’s strategic doctrine and resources, something its military strategists have hitherto avoided. It is equally concerning that some Western pundits persist in provoking this irrational anxiety through baseless allegations. Indian developments in MIRVs, hypersonic systems, and anti-satellite weapons, which pose far more disruptive threats to regional security, are usually ignored in their selective analysis. This propaganda reveals a startling fact: India’s strategic outlook is destroyed. The simplest way to challenge the idea of invincibility is to look outside. The false accusations of its development of ICBMs appear to be a mere puff.

Conversely, India has aggressively advanced its missile arsenal, including ICBM capabilities. The Agni-V missile, capable of striking targets between 5,000 and 7,000 km, exemplifies India’s shift toward offensive force projection. The Indian missile program is not limited to the Agni-V. It was also reported that Agni-VI is expected to have a range between 6000 and 9,000 km with a payload of 3 tonnes, and a lighter payload of 1.5 tonnes. Initially, India claimed that the Agni program was a technological demonstration that later took on a military role. The Agni program, also known as the Surya program, began functioning in 1994 and was used with space launch vehicles. The Surya program led to several missile variants, potentially reaching ranges up to 20,000 km. It is widely claimed that the Surya will carry a nuclear payload, sometimes stated to include multiple nuclear warheads. Additionally, India’s integration of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology into its ICBMs significantly alters the regional power balance and complicates strategic deterrence. As evident by recent escalations, Pakistan relies heavily on its deterrence capabilities; it does not require a weapon of its own to counter India’s arms race. Pakistan’s operational readiness and willingness to respond deters Indian hegemonic designs in the region.

Now, to shift the strategic focus from the defeat acknowledged by the West and the criticism from India’s own public discourse and power structures, narrative deflection became India’s scapegoat. Blaming Pakistan for secretly developing ICBMs was a deliberate distraction. State institutions engaged in this narrative war, from social media influencers to television panels, as India’s narrative machinery was in full motion. The objective was to spread mistrust internationally, hide domestic dissatisfaction, and justify India’s expanding ambitions in space militarization and missile technology. It also raised a pertinent question: considering Pakistan as an adversary based on allegations of pursuing ICBMs, how could India justify itself as a strategic ally of the West with ICBMs reaching their mainland. This narrative manipulation will further erode the credibility of India at international level as no one is buying their argument.

Author

Abdul Basit, Associate Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK.