In response to the technological advancements in missile defense systems, Pakistan has made significant strides in developing precision-guided weaponry to maintain a strategic balance in South Asia. The recent missile tests conducted by Pakistan underscore its effort to maintain strategic balance in the South Asia. This article examines Pakistan’s Fatah-II missile system, India’s missile defense projects, and the potential role of AI in shaping future defense strategies.
On May 11, 2024, the Pakistan Army conducted a successful training launch of the Fatah-II Guided Rocket System, boasting a range of 400 kilometers. The primary objective of this launch was to refine launch drills and procedures. The Fatah-II, equipped with a state-of-the-art navigation system and unique trajectory and maneuverable features, is capable of engaging targets with high precision, effectively countering any missile defense system.
This precision-guided rocket system is set to be inducted into Pakistan’s Artillery Divisions, significantly enhancing the reach and lethality of the country’s conventional arsenal. The Fatah-II’s induction represents a strategic upgrade for Pakistan, enabling stand-off precision engagement of deep targets. This advancement not only boosts the offensive capabilities of the Pakistani military but also serves as a counterbalance to India’s missile defense systems, adding a new dimension to the regional security dynamics.
India has been progressively enhancing its missile defense capabilities, with significant investments in both indigenous and foreign systems. A key development is the acquisition of the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems from Russia. Despite delays due to the Ukraine conflict, India is set to receive the remaining two regiments of these long-range missile systems by next year, completing the USD 5.5 billion deal. In addition to the S-400, India is advancing its indigenous missile defense projects.
The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) recently conducted successful tests of the Very Short-Range Air Defence System (VSHORADS), capable of targeting hostile aircraft, drones, and helicopters within a 6-kilometer range. Furthermore, Project Kusha, or the Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (LR-SAM), is designed to counter stealth fighters, aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and precision-guided munitions, with interception capabilities comparable to the S-400 system.
India’s missile defense strategy is poised for a transformative upgrade with the potential integration of AI. Drawing inspiration from Israel’s multilayered air defense systems, which utilize AI algorithms for real-time missile tracking and interception, India is likely to adopt similar technologies. AI can enhance decision-making speed and accuracy, optimizing target allocation and improving overall system efficacy. India’s collaboration with Israel opens avenues for incorporating AI into its missile defense systems. This integration would provide India with a ` capability to manage and neutralize aerial threats.
Furthermore, India is developing a Dynamic Response Strategy (DRS), which represents a shift from the traditional “All or Nothing” military approach. The DRS involves a spectrum of response options below the Nuclear Threshold. Central to this strategy is the development of missile defense systems, which will be a crucial component due to their potential to deny responsive air strikes from Pakistan.
The importance of precision-guided missiles in this context cannot be overstated, as they are essential for maintaining a credible deterrent. The challenges faced by Russia’s integrated air defense system against modern precision-strike weapons in the Ukraine war highlight the need for advanced and agile defense systems to effectively counter contemporary threats. In this evolving strategic environment, the Fatah-II missile system holds significant importance for Pakistan. Its precision-guided capabilities and maneuverability make it a formidable tool against advanced missile defense systems and can be an effective tool against the Indian limited war strategies such as DRS.
As India enhances its missile defense with AI integration, the Fatah-II provides Pakistan with a credible countermeasure, maintaining a strategic balance in the region. The Fatah-II’s ability to engage deep targets with high precision also aligns with Pakistan’s broader strategic objectives, enabling it to deter and, if necessary, respond to threats from India’s advanced missile defense infrastructure. This dynamic interplay between offensive and defensive capabilities highlights the intricate balance of power in South Asia.
India’s ongoing efforts to develop a robust missile defense system, with the potential integration of AI, and its adoption of a dynamic resistance strategy signify a major shift in its defense posture. As India enhances its ability to intercept and neutralize various aerial threats, the precision capabilities of Pakistan’s Fatah-II missile system become increasingly significant. The Fatah-II not only strengthens Pakistan’s offensive capabilities but also ensures a credible deterrent against India’s advancing missile defenses. This evolving dynamic underscores the importance of continuous innovation and strategic foresight in maintaining stability and security in the region.
Authors
Zohaib Altaf is Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK
Nimra Javed is Associate Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies AJK
