On May 28, 1998, Pakistan conducted its first public nuclear tests in response to India’s nuclear tests earlier that month. This event marked a significant milestone in Pakistan’s national security strategy, establishing it as a nuclear-armed state and ensuring a credible deterrent against potential aggression from India. The doctrine of nuclear deterrence has since played a critical role in maintaining a strategic balance in South Asia, preventing the escalation of conflicts into full-scale wars. The presence of nuclear weapons has effectively deterred India from engaging in an all-out war with Pakistan.
However, this has not eliminated the threat entirely. Instead, India has sought to exploit the space below the nuclear threshold, engaging in limited conventional conflicts and leveraging information warfare to undermine Pakistan’s stability. This strategy involves psychological operations, disinformation campaigns, and other non-kinetic means to achieve strategic objectives without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Despite the strategic advantages conferred by its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan faces significant economic challenges that threaten its stability. The country has historically struggled with economic volatility, high debt levels, and a reliance on international financial assistance. Since 1958, Pakistan has entered into 22 loan agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlighting its recurring fiscal deficits and balance of payments crises. The economic policies of successive governments have often failed to achieve sustainable growth, leading to a cycle of borrowing and economic austerity.
One of the critical economic issues is the high cost of electricity, which hampers industrial competitiveness and economic growth. According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s (NEPRA) 2021 State of Industry report, the cost of nuclear electricity in Pakistan is PKR 9.3 per unit, which is significantly lower than the costs of coal and oil, priced at PKR 14.8 and PKR 14.6 per unit, respectively.
However, despite the relatively low cost of nuclear power, overall electricity prices in Pakistan remain high compared to regional countries. This situation has worsened in recent years, with electricity prices continuing to rise, making it increasingly difficult for Pakistani industries to compete in international markets and boost exports.
Another major challenge facing Pakistan is its rapidly growing and youthful population. According to the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) National Human Development Survey, 64% of Pakistan’s population is under 30 years old, with 29% between the ages of 15 and 29. This demographic trend presents both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, a young population can be a significant asset, driving innovation, economic growth, and social change. On the other hand, if the needs of this demographic are not adequately addressed, it can lead to social unrest and weaken the social contract between the state and its citizens.
The sheer scale of the youth population, approximately 170 million out of a total population of 240 million, places immense pressure on the government to provide education, employment, and other essential services. Failure to meet these needs can lead to disenchantment and frustration among the youth, potentially fueling radicalization and other forms of social instability. In this context, the social contract—the implicit agreement between the state and its citizens, where the state provides services and security in exchange for loyalty and compliance—is under threat.
Amid these challenges, nuclear energy presents a viable solution for Pakistan’s energy and economic woes. Pakistan’s six nuclear power reactors, located at Chashma and Karachi, contribute around 27% of the country’s electricity. These reactors, utilizing pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology, offer a relatively low-cost and stable source of energy compared to fossil fuels.
Expanding nuclear energy capacity can help reduce the overall cost of electricity, making it more affordable for industries and consumers alike. Lower energy costs can enhance industrial competitiveness, boost exports, and stimulate economic growth. Moreover, a reliable energy supply is critical for attracting foreign investment, which is essential for economic development and job creation.
Nuclear technology also offers solutions beyond energy production. In agriculture, Pakistan has made significant strides in increasing crop yields, improving food security, and addressing agricultural challenges through nuclear techniques. The development of stress-resistant crop varieties, soil management programs, and insect control initiatives have all benefited from nuclear technology. These advancements are crucial for a country where agriculture accounts for 22.7% of GDP and employs 37.4% of the labor force, with a significant portion of the population residing in rural areas.
New Nuclear Technologies for Pakistan
| Technology | Applications | Benefits for Developing Countries | Affordability |
| Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) | Flexible and scalable power generation, suitable for remote areas | Economic growth, job creation, and reliable electricity | Moderate initial cost, low operating cost |
| Advanced Nuclear Reactors | Higher efficiency and safety, diverse applications | Improved safety, economic benefits, and energy security | High initial cost, potential for cost reduction |
| Molten Salt Reactors | Efficient heat production, potential for industrial use | Industrial heat applications and reduced greenhouse gas emissions | Moderate to high cost, but efficient |
| Nuclear Fusion | Clean energy with minimal waste, future potential | Potential for limitless clean energy and economic growth | High research and development cost |
| Nuclear Desalination | Desalination of seawater for fresh water supply | Addressing water scarcity and improving agriculture | Cost-effective for water-scarce regions |
| Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) | Power supply for remote or space applications | Reliable power for critical infrastructure in remote areas | High cost, specific niche applications |
| Nuclear Batteries | Long-lasting power for remote sensors and devices | Supporting remote sensing, monitoring, and security | Moderate cost, long-term savings |
| Generation IV Reactors | Enhanced safety, efficiency, and sustainability | Sustainable and reliable energy with long-term benefits | High initial cost, but long-term benefits |
The table outlines various new nuclear technologies that hold significant promise for developing countries. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Nuclear Reactors offer flexible, scalable, and efficient power generation with enhanced safety features, ideal for remote areas. Molten Salt Reactors provide efficient heat production suitable for industrial applications, while Nuclear Fusion represents a future potential for clean energy with minimal waste.
Nuclear Desalination can address water scarcity by converting seawater into fresh water, essential for agriculture and human consumption. Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) and Nuclear Batteries deliver reliable power for remote or space applications, supporting critical infrastructure and remote sensing. Generation IV Reactors aim to enhance safety, efficiency, and sustainability, providing long-term energy solutions.
In Pakistan, these technologies can significantly contribute to economic growth by creating jobs, boosting industrial output, and providing reliable electricity, which is essential for continuous economic activity. They can enhance human security by ensuring a steady supply of clean water and energy, thus improving living standards and reducing vulnerabilities to energy shortages. Moreover, by addressing critical issues such as water scarcity and energy reliability, these technologies can help strengthen the social contract between the state and the people, fostering trust and cooperation as the government demonstrates its capability to meet the essential needs of its population. This alignment can lead to a more stable and prosperous society.
By providing affordable and reliable energy, the government can enhance its legitimacy and build trust with the population. Ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are broadly shared, particularly among the youth, is essential for maintaining social stability and cohesion.
In the context of fifth-generation warfare, where adversaries seek to exploit societal weaknesses through information warfare and other means, a strong social contract is a vital line of defense. When citizens feel that their needs are met and that they have a stake in the country’s future, they are less susceptible to external manipulation and more likely to support the state in times of crisis.
Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence remains a cornerstone of its national security, preventing full-scale wars with India and maintaining strategic stability in South Asia. However, the country faces significant economic challenges, particularly related to high electricity costs and a burgeoning youth population. Addressing these issues through the expansion of nuclear technology can provide a path to economic stability, enhance industrial competitiveness, and strengthen the social contract between the state and its citizens. By leveraging its nuclear capabilities for both security and development, Pakistan can navigate the complex challenges of the 21st century and build a more prosperous and stable future.
