Russia Modifies Its Nuclear Doctrine: On Sunday, September 1, 2024, Russia declared that it will revise its nuclear doctrine in response to the West’s actions in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The modifications will depend on a study and analysis of Russia’s previous conflict experience. Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, stated that this includes everything about the escalation path of adversaries in the West. Western countries actively engage in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by supporting Ukraine diplomatically, imposing economic penalties on Russia, and sending military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, Russia claims that these actions pose an immediate threat to its national security. Therefore, as a deterrent, Russia may choose to review its nuclear posture. Ultimately, this decision could impact world diplomacy and heighten the possibility of a nuclear confrontation.

Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

Previously, Ryabkov said that the acts of the West bring the issue of aligning the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation with its needs. Russia stated that the actions of the United States and its partners have greatly worsened the international policy environment. Moscow is constantly evaluating how its nuclear deterrence documents address these challenges. In 2020, Putin signed a document known officially as the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence.” This document specifies when Russia may use its largest nuclear arsenal. According to the 2020 “Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence,” Russia may use nuclear weapons if its adversary utilizes these or other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) against the country and its allies. Russia may also use nuclear weapons if it obtains credible information about the firing of ballistic missiles against the country and its allies. Additionally, nuclear weapons may be used if targets essential to the deployment of nuclear forces are attacked. Additionally, Russia may use nuclear weapons if the government is attacked with conventional weaponry and the state’s existence is in jeopardy. Putin was able to use vague threats regarding Russia’s nuclear arsenal to deter any immediate Western reaction to his deployment of troops into Ukraine in February 2022. This risk remains not clearly defined.

Russia Modifies Nuclear Doctrine: Key Changes Under Debate

Putin stated he did not need nuclear weapons to accomplish his objectives as the situation in Ukraine gradually shifted in Moscow’s favor. He adds, however, it is inaccurate for the West to believe that Russia will never make use of nuclear weapons. Russia’s doctrine conveys the notion that Moscow won’t ever use nuclear weapons, that’s why it hasn’t stopped the West from extending aid to Ukraine. Russia may launch a nuclear strike first when “the core national interests are at stake,” as they are in Ukraine, according to the revised nuclear doctrine. For Russia, preventing NATO from becoming more deeply involved in the military conflict is an urgent goal in its third year. The ongoing escalation by the West will likely lead to a direct clash between Russian and NATO militaries. Such a clash is fraught with the risk of a global nuclear war.

Will Ukraine Launch its own Missiles against Russia soon?

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pleaded with his supporters in the West. He is asking them to allow Ukraine to employ long-range missiles against targets within mainland Russia. This strategy aims to put further pressure on Moscow to end the war. On 27 August, 2024 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared the successful test of his country’s first ballistic missile made domestically. Additionally, Zelenskyy emphasized the recent use of Palianytsia, a long-range “rocket drone” manufactured in Ukraine.

Implications for Global Security as Russia Modifies Nuclear Doctrine

Russia may change its nuclear doctrine in response to the West’s steadfast support for Ukraine. Furthermore, the Federation of American Scientists states that Russia and the United States possess around 88% of all nuclear weapons in the world, making them the two largest nuclear powers globally. As a result, as the US and its Western allies put Russia in danger by intensifying the conflict in Ukraine and trampling on Moscow’s legitimate security interests, Russia aims to revise its nuclear strategy. Consequently, this scenario will worsen the global arms race and impact diplomacy and negotiation in Europe. The West is violating and weakening the arms control regime by providing military support to Ukraine. Additionally, it supports India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), even though India is not a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty.

The India-Pakistan Nuclear Dynamic

In the context of Pakistan and India, the international community should be concerned about the significant vulnerabilities in India’s nuclear safety and security mechanisms. A recent arrest took place on August 9, 2024, in Bihar. Authorities apprehended a three-person group for suspected involvement in the smuggling of fifty grams of Californium, a radioactive material. Furthermore, these incidents could continue to be a catastrophic nuclear threat to the whole region. India’s failures in nuclear safety and security do not present the country as a responsible nuclear power. This raises questions about its ambition to become a regional power. An increase in nuclear theft incidents should hinder India’s aspirations for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). The NSG is a 48-nation alliance that monitors international nuclear trade. To protect its own uranium for potential use in developing weapons, India was permitted to import large amounts of nuclear fuel under the 2008 NSG waiver. In comparison to Pakistan, India now possesses more nuclear weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) annual assessment for 2024. Furthermore, the study highlights India’s focus on developing weapons with a greater range. This includes weapons capable of hitting targets in China and Pakistan. The report implies that these developments will enhance India’s deterrent capability, which could negatively impact regional strategic stability to a significant extent.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.

Nazia Sheikh is a Research Officer at Centre for International Strategic Studies, AJK. She is an MPhil scholar in international relations from international Islamic university Islamabad.