Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Laureate of Bangladesh while his visit to China claimed that Northeast India (Seven Sisters States) is Landlocked and Bangladesh is the ‘only guardian of the Indian Ocean’ in Bay of Bengal. Moreover, he has also suggested China to establish a military base in Bangladesh along with extension of Chinese economy through investment in Bangladesh. In response, China has committed US$ 2.1 Bn in loans, investments and grants to Bangladesh; which include Mongla port modernization, China Industrial Economic Zone and technical assistance to Teesa river management project. Additionally, US$ 1 Bn has also been pledged by Chinese companies.
The statement of Muhammad Yunus regarding sole guardian of Bay of Bangal has opened discussions in Geo-Strategic and Geo-Political circles particularly in IOR. Particularly, India is aggressively reacting to this statement as India has taken it as direct attack on its sovereignty and challenge Indian influence in the IOR.
India beliefs itself a natural leader in the Indian Ocean and accordingly, it has taken the initiative of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region). However, statement of Muhammad Yunus disregarded Indian belief. Moreover, inclination of Bangladesh towards China and vice versa is impacting geo-economic, political and security dynamics. China agreed to invest in Bangladeshi ports like Chittagong and Payra is example of new economic collaboration between the two countries.
On the other side, China is pursuing its ‘Strings of Pearls’ strategy to steadily expand its reach to Africa through ‘Maritime Silk Road’ plan. China is focusing on Pakistan through Gwadar Port & CPEC, Sri Lankan’s Hambantota Port, Bangladesh’s Chittagong and Payra Ports and Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu Port as an alternate to its critical choke point of Strait of Malacca. Moreover, China’s military base in Djibouti is also part of the plan to protect its maritime interests from Horn of Africa to Indian Ocean. Overall, China is addressing the challenges like its energy security, military projection and economic leverage.
In response to China ‘Strings of Pearls’ move, India is developing/ expanding its port network not only in India but also in Iran (Chahbahar) and strengthening its naval alliance in line of its ‘Necklace of Diamond’ strategy. To counter China’s influence in IOR, India is growing its naval alliance with countries like Singapore, Indonesia and Oman. Moreover, Quad alliance of USA, India, Japan and Australia has also been revived. In addition, India is set to commission its naval base near Rambili as part of its classified Project Varsha to house Indian nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. These submarines are supposedly undetectable by satellites and may be deployed into Bay of Bangal and Strait of Malacca in response to growing China’s influence in IOR. This naval base is planned to operationalize by 2026 as Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat airfield may be developed by China.
In context of Bangladesh, although the statement of Muhammad Yunus seemingly minor but can be served as a reminder of regional tensions that may surface. As power game between USA and China in IOR intensifies, careful diplomacy by nations involved like Pakistan, India, Bangladesh will become important to address their economic and security interests as well as stability of the region. In context of Pakistan India rivalry in the region, Bangladesh may play vital role in stability of the region by maintaining equilibrium of global powers in South Asia and to chart its own national interests.
In such circumstances, Pakistan-China partnership, particularly CPEC; which affords much needed development of infrastructure and energy management that may boost Pakistan’s national economy, can be targeted by the rivalries. Pak China friendship demonstrates unwavering solidarity and a shining example of long-term strategic partnership. China’s investments in Pakistan, particularly CPEC are cornerstone for economic growth not only for Pakistan but for the region as well. This foreign investment is based on win-win framework; wherein, Pakistan will retain the ownership of the projects while utilizing expertise and financing of China. The development of Gwadar port under CPEC is envisaged to be hub of transshipment for Central Asia, Africa and Middle East and positioning Pakistan a major maritime trade player in the region. Strategic synergy of Pak China friendship is delivering tangible benefits for both nations from infrastructure to defence and from diplomacy to economic advantages. China’s indispensable role in Pakistan progress proves that no challenge is insurmountable when two nations have a mutual vision.
IOR which was once a quite backdrop to trade has now become geopolitics chessboard in 21st century. Developing countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh are shaping the future of power balance in Asia. Pakistan should strengthen its energy and maritime cooperation with Oman, Iran and East Africa for integration into Indian Ocean trade networks to foster stability through shared economic interests. Moreover, Pakistan should establish close ties with Muslim countries to ensure diplomatic flexibility. In addition, approaching Western markets for trade and maintaining calibrated dialogue with neighbouring countries on maritime security may be a viable option to mitigate regional tensions. Notwithstanding, Pakistan should continue to expand its naval fleet to secure SLOCs as well as national maritime interests and continue partnership in Combined Maritime Force to portray its commitment to counter-piracy and anti-smuggling efforts. Foregoing in context, Pakistan should pursue the goal of ‘a stable, economically integrated region’ where Pakistan serves as a bridge, not a battleground, for competing powers.
Authors
V/Adm Ahmed Saeed HI (M) (Retd), President, National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Islamabad
Dr Waqas Khaliq Bhatti
Research Fellow, National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Islamabad
The writers are associated with National Institute of Maritime Affairs; however, opinions expressed are their own.
