Introduction

 The bold and controversial step taken by the Indian government on August 5, 2019 was the revocation of Article 370, which was a constitutional provision that provided special autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. This action, seen by many as a turning point in the region’s history, has significantly altered the strategic dynamics between India and Pakistan, two neighboring countries with a long history of conflict over Kashmir. The revocation of Article 370 has been interpreted in various ways, with far-reaching implications for regional security, diplomacy, and the lives of those residing in the region.

Ramifications of the Revocation of Article 370

 The abrogation of Article 370 has led to a series of complex and interconnected consequences that continue to shape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. These ramifications include concerns about international law, human rights, and the right of the Kashmiri people to self- determination. Additionally, the move has sparked intense diplomatic and political reactions, altered security dynamics, and had profound economic and social impacts on the region.

Violation of International Law

 Critics of the revocation argue that it constitutes a violation of international law, particularly concerning the status of Jammu and Kashmir. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has previously passed resolutions calling for the status of Kashmir to be determined through a plebiscite. By unilaterally altering the region’s status, India has been accused of disregarding these resolutions and undermining the international legal framework established to address the Kashmir conflict.

Human Rights Concerns

The revocation of Article 370 has also raised significant human rights concerns. Following the announcement, the Indian government imposed a curfew, cut off internet access, and detained thousands of political leaders and activists. Reports of human rights abuses, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly, have emerged, drawing condemnation from international human rights organizations. The situation in Kashmir remains tense, with the local population facing severe restrictions on their basic freedoms.

Kashmiri Self-Determination

 The issue of Kashmiri self-determination has long been a contentious one. Article 370 was seen by many in Kashmir as a guarantee of their unique identity and autonomy within the Indian Union. The revocation of this article has been perceived by many Kashmiris as an attempt to erase their distinct cultural and political identity. This move has fueled resentment and anger among the Kashmiri population, who feel that their aspirations for greater autonomy or even independence have been further undermined.

Diplomatic and Political Reactions

 The diplomatic and political fallout from the revocation of Article 370 has been significant. Pakistan, in particular, has been vocal in its condemnation of the move, viewing it as a violation of international law and the rights of the Kashmiri people. Islamabad has sought to internationalize the issue, appealing to the United Nations and other international bodies for support. However, the international response has been mixed, with some countries supporting India’s stance, while others have expressed concern over the potential for increased instability in the region. From India’s perspective, the revocation of Article 370 is seen as a necessary step to fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union. The Indian government has argued that the special status granted to the region was a temporary provision that hindered its development and allowed separatist sentiments to flourish. By revoking Article 370, India aims to bring Jammu and Kashmir on par with other states in terms of development, governance, and law enforcement. The government has also emphasized that this move is an internal matter and should not be interfered with by other nations. In contrast, Pakistan views the revocation of Article 370 as a direct challenge to its position on Kashmir. For decades, Pakistan has maintained that Kashmir is a disputed territory and that its status should be determined by the will of the Kashmiri people, as mandated by UNSC resolutions. The move by India has been seen by Islamabad as an attempt to unilaterally change the status of the region and annex it fully into India. Pakistan has responded by downgrading diplomatic ties with India, suspending trade, and raising the issue at international forums. The Pakistani government has also warned of the potential for increased violence and instability in the region as a result of India’s actions.

Security and Military Dynamics

The revocation of Article 370 has had significant implications for the security and military dynamics in the region. The Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, has witnessed an increase in military activity, with both sides bolstering their presence. Ceasefire violations have become more frequent, leading to a tense and volatile situation along the LoC. Following the revocation of Article 370, both India and Pakistan have significantly increased their military presence along the LoC. India has deployed additional troops to Jammu and Kashmir, citing the need to maintain security and prevent unrest. Pakistan, in turn, has strengthened its military positions along the border, leading to an escalation of tensions. The increased military presence has heightened the risk of accidental or deliberate skirmishes, which could potentially escalate into a larger conflict. The heightened military tensions between India and Pakistan have raised concerns about the risk of a larger military confrontation. Both countries are nuclear-armed, and any conflict between them could have devastating consequences. The events of early 2019, when India conducted airstrikes in Pakistan’s Balakot region following a terrorist attack in Pulwama, and Pakistan subsequently downed an Indian jet, highlight the fragile nature of the situation. The possibility of further escalation remains a significant concern for the international community.

Terrorism and Insurgency

 The issue of terrorism and armed struggle in Jammu and Kashmir is closely linked to the broader conflict between India and Pakistan. India has long accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and that Pakistan provides backing to groups that are operating in the region. These groups, according to India, are responsible for carrying out attacks on Indian security forces and civilians in Kashmir. India’s position is that Pakistan has been using terrorism as a tool of state policy to destabilize Jammu and Kashmir. The India argues that the revocation of Article 370 is part of its strategy to combat terrorism by bringing the region under tighter central control and curbing the influence of separatist groups. Pakistan, on the other hand, denies supporting terrorism in Kashmir and accuses India of using these allegations to justify its actions in the region. Islamabad has repeatedly called for international intervention to address what it describes as human rights violations by Indian security forces in Kashmir. Pakistan argues that the unrest in Kashmir is a result of India’s heavy-handed approach and the suppression of the Kashmiri people’s legitimate aspirations for self-determination.

International Reactions

 The international community’s response to the revocation of Article 370 has been varied. While some countries have expressed concern over the situation, others have largely viewed it as an internal matter for India to resolve. This divergence in international reactions reflects the complex and multifaceted nature of the issue, as well as the broader geopolitical considerations at play. Countries such as China and Turkey have voiced support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir issue. China, in particular, has been vocal in its criticism of India’s actions, given that the revocation of Article 370 also affected the status of Ladakh, a region claimed by both India and China. Turkey has similarly criticized India’s move, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calling for dialogue to resolve the issue. However, Pakistan has struggled to garner widespread support from other key international actors, particularly within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). These countries, while expressing concern, have stopped short of fully endorsing Pakistan’s stance, largely due to their growing economic and strategic ties with India. Many Western countries, including the United States and members of the European Union, have taken a more cautious approach to the situation. While acknowledging the complexities of the Kashmir issue, these countries have generally viewed the revocation of Article 370 as an internal matter for India. The United States, in particular, has emphasized the importance of dialogue between India and Pakistan to resolve their differences. However, the strategic importance of India in the context of countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region has led to a more muted response from these countries, with calls for restraint and dialogue rather than outright condemnation. The United Nations has expressed concern over the situation in Kashmir, particularly in relation to human rights violations. The UN Secretary-General has called for restraint from both India and Pakistan and emphasized the need for dialogue to address the issue. However, the UN has not taken any concrete action beyond issuing statements of concern. This lack of decisive action reflects the limitations of the international community in addressing complex territorial disputes, especially when they involve nuclear-armed states.

Human Rights Organizations

 International human rights organizations have raised serious concerns about the situation in Jammu and Kashmir following the revocation of Article 370. Reports of human rights abuses, including the use of excessive force by security forces, arbitrary detentions, and restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly, have been documented. However, these concerns have not translated into significant international pressure on India, largely due to the country’s economic and strategic importance on the global stage. As a result, human rights organizations have faced challenges in pushing for meaningful action to address the situation.

Conclusion

 The CPEC, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, passes through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region, claimed by India but administered by Pakistan. This has added a strategic dimension to the India-Pakistan-China triangle. By declaring Laddakh as union territory, China has become direct party to the Kashmir issue; hence previously there were three parties in the dispute: India, Pakistan and Kashmiris, now China is the fourth party which is directly involved in the Kashmir dispute. Strengthening ties between the US and India, partly driven by a shared concern over China’s rising influence, has implications for the regional balance of power. Both the states are in strategic alliance against China and this alliance is also increasing tension in the region. Pakistan’s perspective on the revocation of Article 370 is rooted in concerns over legal, humanitarian, and security implications. The situation remains a central element of Pakistan’s foreign policy and its relations with India. The strategic dynamics between India and Pakistan post-revocation of Article 370 continue to evolve, with implications for regional security, international diplomacy, and the lives of people in Jammu and Kashmir. Author The author is an Assistant Professor at the Centre for International Peace & Stability (CIPS), National University of Science & Technology (NUST), Islamabad and has achieved her PhD in Strategic and Nuclear Studies. She is a former Research Fellow at the George Washington University, Washington DC. She can be reached at rubiwaseem@ymail.com & rubina.waseem@cips.nust.edu.pk.