After a hiatus of several years, Russia’s military pact with India was recently expected to be approved, during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russia. However, during the visit, much anticipated, The Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreements (RELOS) failed to get inked between the both sides. What made this agreement a significant was the fact that this was to become the first ever military pact between the two states since the Cold War. It predominantly dealt with logistical issues that would have made military cooperation between the both sides more flexible. The agreement, which had been in the process for years, included military cooperation, technology transfers, port calls, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief (HADR). There are numerous speculations about the agreement not being signed, most likely due to Western pressure, particularly from the US. This indicates inherent limitations within the longstanding Russo-Indian strategic alliance, lending support to the notion that India’s strategic autonomy is diminishing. While New Delhi might strive to maintain a balanced stance, engaging with all sides in a polarized global environment, its strategic partnership with the US could ultimately force it to take a definitive side. Such a shift carries significant geopolitical implications for the South Asian region, particularly with respect to Pakistan.
RELOS had been delayed for several years, but recently, the Russian side signed it, and after Indian ratification, it would have become effective. As per information, the agreement was to be valid for five years and renewed automatically until one party withdraws or terminates it. Once both parties would ratify, the deal will grant India and Russia access to each other’s military facilities, including ports and air bases, for logistical purposes such as training, spare parts, and maintenance. India has also signed similar agreements with other QUADS member states, i.e., the United Kingdom, the United States, France, South Korea, and Vietnam. Defense cooperation between India and Russia has remained an essential pillar of their strategic partnership, including technical military collaboration. During the India-Russia 2+2 dialogue, they signed a decade-long agreement from 2021-2031, which included military-to-military interaction, supply, and ammunition development.
The Indian Navy stands to benefit from RELOS by accessing Russian military facilities in the Arctic, which is significant due to climate change impacts. Melting Arctic ice could open new shipping routes, altering global sea trade. India plans to link the International North-South Corridor to the Arctic to cut shipping costs. RELOS is seen as mutually beneficial, aiding both Indian and Russian naval operations.

Policy Options for Pakistan

Pakistan may see these emerging changes as a significant alteration in the regional power dynamics, thereby prompting it to take strategic steps to bolster its own alliances. This reaction is likely to involve a focus on strengthening its relationship with China, a nation with which Pakistan already shares strong military and economic ties. This pre-existing bond with China is characterized by extensive cooperation in various sectors, including defense, trade, and infrastructure development. As Pakistan deals with this evolving geopolitical landscape, it is expected to intensify its strategic partnership with China to counterbalance to safeguard its strategic interests in the region.

Simultaneously, Russia’s growing dependence on China has significantly limited the scope of its ties with India, which is rapidly strengthening its strategic partnership with Washington. The United States views India as a counterbalance to the rising influence of China. Amidst these changing strategic dynamics, Pakistan needs to reassess its interests, exploit the vacuum created by Indian engagement with the West to solidify its natural partnerships with both Russia and China. Strengthening these alliances could provide Pakistan with enhanced geopolitical leverage and economic benefits, particularly in the areas of trade, defense, and technology. By fostering closer ties with Russia and China, Pakistan can better navigate the complex of regional politics and ensure that its strategic interests are protected in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Moreover, this strategic realignment could lead to more comprehensive economic initiatives, like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has already demonstrated substantial benefits for Pakistan’s infrastructure and economic development. Increased cooperation with Russia could also open new avenues for energy projects, technological collaboration, and military equipment acquisitions. As global power centers shift, Pakistan’s proactive engagement with both Russia and China will be crucial in maintaining its regional influence and pursuing a balanced foreign policy that secures long-term stability and growth.