Recent tensions between Iran and Israel, Russia’s nuclear threats towards NATO, and the ongoing nuclear weapons development and modernization in North Korea, the US, and India will have profound implications for arms control. The US and Russia, under the New START treaty, were closely following arms control, where each was allowed to have a specific number of strategic nuclear weapons, which included 1550 nuclear warheads and 700 ICBMs, including submarine-launched and heavy nuclear bombers. The treaty will expire in 2026; however, Russia has unilaterally abrogated the treaty and argued that it has limited its nuclear warhead deployment. From the Cold War until now, Russia and the USA have negotiated arms control.

However, the war in Europe, the Middle Eastern quagmire, the crisis in Asia, and the nuclearized Korean peninsula have weakened the global arms control regime. The US, Russia, and China are not discussing arms control measures. The US and China do not have any agreement on arms control. At the same time, Russia and the US halted the arms control discussion, and the agreement was canceled, like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Threat Force in Europe treaty, the Open Skies, and The Conventional Force in Europe agreements. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear signaling has also started nuclear proliferation and increased the importance of US extended deterrence.

According to the New York Times report, “re-orients Americans deterrents strategy” to meet the need to deter Russia, China, and North Korea. Moreover, Russia and China will implement the countermeasures, which will not only fuel the arms race but also dangerously increase then nuclear force readiness. This might include the nuclear response to any false warning.

The treaties to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons have been somewhat effective, but they are now lacking in vision, capacity, and leadership. The war in Ukraine has brought renewed attention to nuclear deterrence and disarmament, with some countries considering nuclear hedging as a potential option. The contemporary global dynamic challenges nuclear disarmament and the need for renewed efforts to prevent further proliferation.

Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons, which raises concerns about the role of nuclear weapons in deterring conflict and the potential risks of their use. Over the period of time Iran has kept its nuclear enrichment below the threshold. However, the current Middle East conflict and unwavering support for Israel, the growing closeness between Iran and Russia, and Donald Trump’s scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal have further diminished the NPT regime.

Bob Woodward, an expert on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, expresses less concern about the use of nuclear weapons by major powers like Russia and the US but more about smaller states, such as North Korea, obtaining nuclear weapons due to their conventional weakness. North Korea’s intended use-it-or-lose-it dilemma is a significant concern.

North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and the short missile flight time between North and South Korea and North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukrainian war create a dangerous situation in the Korean Peninsula. There is a potential for South Korea to develop nuclear weapons in response to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and perceived uncertainty about US protection. Public opinion in South Korea has shifted in favor of nuclear weapons, and the Biden Administration’s efforts to reassure South Korea have not entirely quelled these concerns. South Korea’s desire for nuclear weapons stems from the structural issue that North Korea can now hit the United States, and the Trump Administration’s actions and rhetoric have worsened this credibility problem.

Currently, Japan is also facing a nuclear dilemma with the country presently opposing nuclear weapons but potentially reconsidering if the US withdraws from South Korea and leaves the region without a US force on the ground. Moreover, recently, the US announced the deployment of typhoon missiles in Japan. Deployment of typhoon missiles will further escalate the military confrontation, raising a serious threat for China and North Korea to take countermeasures, which will not only lead to an arms race but also exacerbate regional instability.

The sense of American abandonment is a significant concern, particularly for Japan, and QUAD member countries might be incentivized to acquire nuclear weapons. In the Middle East, Iran is identified as the biggest concern, but Saudi Arabia’s desire for a civil nuclear program should be kept in mind, too. There are also possibilities that Turkey and Egypt will develop nuclear weapons due to their geopolitical situations and existing nuclear power plants.

While analyzing the current Middle East situation, there is the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which could include civilian nuclear technology for Saudi Arabia. The civil nuclear power for energy production and the regulatory measures are in place to prevent nuclear technology diversion for military purposes.

Ukraine is an example of a country that gave up its nuclear weapons based on political decisions and the Budapest memorandum, which Russia has since torn up. Moreover, according to Western experts over a while, China also supported countries in developing nuclear capabilities, creating a potential “trade war” in the civil nuclear sector. Furthermore, containing Iran’s nuclear program is crucial to preventing further proliferation in the region.

China may hold some leverage in this situation due to its recent deal with Saudi Arabia. Still, it remains to be seen if China will use this leverage to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. There is a need for a shift from nuclear prohibition to nuclear control. Profound political differences in the world make the goal of nuclear abolition unrealistic, and efforts should instead focus on arms control and containment.

There is a perceived hypocrisy among nuclear weapon states, such as the United States, Russia, China, and India, in advocating for non-proliferation while continuing to build up their arsenals. This creates a problematic environment for non-nuclear weapon states, like South Korea and Ukraine, who question why they should not develop nuclear weapons in response.

There is a need for a greater understanding of arms control and disarmament efforts rather than prohibition and emphasizing the importance of preventing a nuclear war. More strict laws need to be drafted to avoid the potential threat of nuclear weapons in outer space as well.

The author is a Research Officer at CISS-AJK.